The New York Times had a feature on Tipping Points, but left out the dates - so here they are
...and many hit within a decade, some are already here
In another sweltering August for much of the Northern Hemisphere, the New York Times published a striking feature on planetary tipping points, complete with lavishly produced visualisations.
Tipping points, as you may well know already, occur when rising temperatures or other climate-related factors push one of many planetary climate systems, such as Arctic ice sheets, completely out of balance and into a process of collapse, triggering cataclysmic and irreversible changes to the planet .
The New York Times feature was shared widely (albeit mainly by people already worried by that type of thing).
But while the explanation and visualisations of those tipping points was clear and compelling, when it came to telling people how and when these tipping points might occur, the piece gets somewhat fuzzy – it offers a visual bar of global temperatures and an intentionally imprecise scribble of where it might happen on that bar.
And then an invariably useless prediction, e.g:
Great. Thanks for that.
For most readers, a temperature range is largely meaningless; few people, apart from climate scientists, have any idea how to put a given temperature into a meaningful timeframe.
Maybe that was the idea – to avoid any unwelcome attention for being overly alarmist….. who can possibly say…
And a lot of climate scientists are also reluctant to come out with any dates - lest they scare people.
I really don’t mind scaring people. I actually think it’s probably good to be scared, if something is actually scary.
If this demotivates people, then the problem is obviously not that we’re giving people the best information we have.
Obviously. But that’s another post for another, even hotter day.
As it happens, we have a lot of good information on tipping points, so I thought it might be useful to pin some actual dates - or at least clear data ranges - on these tipping points in a way that anyone can understand.
And as shown below, these tipping points are not just on the horizon; many will hit us in the next decade, and some are already here.
The New York Times feature is still a striking piece and well worth reading .- and I’ll grudgingly admit they are better at flashy interactive visualisations than I am. Marginally.
You can read the piece here - and may be helpful to have open while reading this:
How Close Are the Planet’s Climate Tipping Points?
But how do we put some meaningful dates on these tipping points?
Firstly, we need a timescale for global temperature rises.
When you try to put climate change events onto dates, a lot of climate research leans towards being very “cautious”; that is, reluctant to say anything overly dramatic.
So, for example, the IPCC, the august global body that pulls together vast climate change reports every few years, likes to take a spread of predictions on global temperature and then arrive at a basic number that most of its members can agree on by consensus – which is normally somewhere in the middle.
So cautious tends to mean a number that will upset the least number of people.
In their latest synthesis report they went as far as to say global temperatures increased by up to 1.1 degrees from pre-industrial temperatures in the period from 2011 - 2020.
If this is an urgent problem, that’s hardly an urgent way of assessing it.
That suggests that if we want to find out what the IPCC assesses the global temperature to be now, we’ll have to wait for their report on this decade, which it looks like we’ll get in 2033.
So, let’s just wait until 2033 before we make any bold pronouncements.
My understanding of cautious is different - in relation to global warming it seems to me that cautious is taking the most severe estimate that is scientifically credible and planning for that.
After all, if the most severe forecast turns out to have overestimated the temperature rise, then we may have responded more quickly to climate change than we otherwise would have.
That seems to me completely OK - actually a lot better than OK; we’ll save more lives, more livelihoods and more bio-diversity.
But if we go with the average, and it turns out to be an underestimate; then we’ll probably be cooked.
That’s really not OK.
Just my unscientific opinion.
So with that in mind, I’m taking guidance from James Hansen, one of the most revered climate scientists out there, who is widely credited with bringing climate change to global attention in 1988.
Unlike the IPCC he predicted in 2022 that with El Nino in the house, we’d soar past 1.5 degrees in 2023.
He was correct.
From July 2023 to June 2024 temperatures were 1.64 degrees above pre-industrial level.
And Hansen is adamant that this is not just a blip:
“1.5 degrees is as dead as a doornail”
Furthermore, a paper James Hansen - and a great many others - wrote in late 2023, asserted that temperatures are now rising at 0.27 degrees a decade. 1
Other climate scientists have responded to this with a lot of chin stroking and sucking of teeth, but as far as I can see, no-one has directly challenged these conclusions.
So in my book, these numbers are what we should go with.
And that means we are well past 1.5 degrees already, making all those “Keep 1.5 Alive” action plans still being churned out by companies and governments look like tragically beached whales, baking helplessly in the burning midday sun.
It means we’ll be getting to 2 degrees possibly as soon as 2037.
And we could be reaching 3 degrees by around 2075 - at which point, all bets are off as to what remains of our eco-systems and humanity.
So by way of illustration, if you know any 5 year olds, 3 degrees will hit about the time when they should be retired, still happily active, and mostly focused on their grandchildrens’ new teeth.
Who is going to tell them?
And of course none of these predictions have factored in the tipping points below. So in many ways, we could consider this a best case scenario.
I’ve also gone to a few different places for more information, and in particular, the Global Tipping Points report, released last year, and widely regarded as the most authoritative source.
So here are all those tipping points with a clearer picture of when we might hit them….
Mass death of Coral reefs
Temperature prediction: between 1 and 2 degrees
NY Times date range: it could already be underway
It “could already be”? No, it's definitely underway - 15 percent of coral reefs have been bleached already, a process attributed to global warming, causing catastrophic limits to options for exotic scuba holidays.
And if we expect all of coral reefs to die at 2 degrees, then the last coral reef could be extinguished in the late 2030s - in about 10 years.
My date range: Coral reefs gone in 10 - 15 years
Sources: The world’s corals are bleaching. Here’s why and what it means for the ocean’s future UN Environment Programme (Please note: Taking Hansen’s projections, the date ranges in the article are also out by a couple of decades )
Melting of permafrost
Temperature prediction: from 1 to 2 degrees
NY Times date range: The timing will vary place to place. The effects on global warming could accumulate over a century or more
Yes the timing may vary, but we’ve lost 25 percent of permafrost already - and that has led to massive releases of carbon dioxide and also methane, a greenhouse gas 30 times more warming that CO2.
A recent assessment predicts that we’ll lose 25 per cent more of permafrost with every degree of global warming - so that means we’ll lose 50 percent of permafrost in the next decade, and 75 per cent in the 2070s. All of that will Co2 and methane released will accelerate
warming even further, and cause massively more forest fires, itself a tipping point - as those fires release even more carbon dioxide.
My date range: We’ll lose half of all permafrost in the 2030s
Source: Global Tipping Points report on Permafrost
Greenland ice collapse
Temperature prediction: 1 to 3 degrees
NY Times date range: Irreversible melting could begin this century and unfold over hundreds, even thousands, of years
Yet again, we can say Greenland ice loss is well and truly underway - fully 33 percent has gone already. Scientists now say we have already past the point of no return; even if we stoppped climate change tomorrow, we couldn’t stop the ice sheet from disappearing.
And here, as the ice sheet melts, less heat is reflected back from the Earth’s surface, and that will heat the planet even further.
If the Greenland ice sheet collapses completely, sea level would rise by 7 metres. That would take put huge tracts of northern Europe underwater - including Belgium and northern Germany, all the way to Hamburg. As well as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Taipei, Also Miami, Houston and New Orleans…
My date range: We reached the tipping point in early 2000s, Greenland Icesheet loss is already irreversible
Sources: Global Tipping Points Report
Going, Going … Gone: Greenland’s Melting Ice Sheet Passed a Point of No Return in the Early 2000s (Inside Climate News)
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Temperature prediction: Between 1 and 3 degrees
NY Times date range: As in Greenland, the ice sheet could begin to recede irreversibly in this century
Compared to the Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarctica Ice sheet is currently cooler - but there are clear signs of instability, especially in one area: the Amundsen Sheet. As Carbon Brief reports, virtually models point to irreversible ice loss at some point between 1.5 and 2 degrees, so by our temperature gauge, that’s anytime in the next thirteen years, with the most likely time bring around 2031.
And by 2070 the entire ice sheet could be under threat, leading to a potential sea level rise of 5m. Bear in mind that this loss would be happening about the same time as the Greenland collapse - so that’s 13m in total - which would render most coastal population centres - which are the vast majority of population centres on the planet - completely uninhabitable.
My date range: Most likely in the early 2030’s
Source: Carbon Brief: How close is the West Antarctic ice sheet to a ‘tipping point’?
Shift of West African Monsoon
Temperature prediction: between 2 and 4 degrees
NY Times date range: Hard to predict.
Another insightful assessment.
The West African Monsoon, needless to say, is essential for agriculture, biodiversity and all life in the region. The difficulty here is knowing what the effect of a collapse would be; if the Monsoon shifts northwards, it may actually cause the Sahara desert to return to a wetter, greener state, as it has been periodically - the last period being 5,000 years ago. But if the Monsoon shifts south, then the whole region could be drier, leading to food systems collapse and severe drought.
Experts say this could occur between 2 and 3.5 degrees - so between the 2030s and 2070s.
My date range: Some time from mid 2030s to mid 2070s
Source: Global Tipping Points
Collapse of the Amazon rainforest
Temperature prediction: Between 2 and 6 degrees
NY Times date range: Will depend on how rapidly people clear, or protect, the remaining forest.
Once again a definitively vague assessment. To be clear we have already lost 17 percent of the Amazon and a further 17 percent is severely degraded, and while much of that is from deforestation, rather than climate change per se, it’s really not looking good.
If the Amazon reaches a nonlinear tipping point, we could see huge amounts of CO2 released and also widespread fires, leading to even more CO2 released. Scientists estimate this to occur either when forest first cover drops between 20 and 40 percent, so the lower threshold is very close to where we are now. But scientists also consider a temperature threshold - of most likely around 3.5 degrees, so that could be in the 2090s - but they have a range of between 2 and 6 degrees, so we could see a tipping point reached as early as the 2030s.
A recent study forecast that irreversible changes in the Amazon would be set in motion around 2050 on our current trajectory.
Amazon rainforest could reach ‘tipping point’ by 2050, scientists warn
My date range: Amazon rainforest collapse irreversible by 2050
Source: Amazon rainforest could reach ‘tipping point’ by 2050, scientists warn (The Guardian)
Shutdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) current
NY Times temperature prediction: between 2 and 8 degrees
When it might happen: Very hard to predict.
This current swirls in the middle of the Atlantic like a giant washing machine; it sweeps warm water from the south to the north and then icy cold water from the arctic south towards equator - and it has a massive regulating impact on the climate in the northern hemisphere. If it goes, then the northern hemisphere climate goes completely off the rails - if you’ve ever seen the film The Day After Tomorrow with Jake Gyllenhall burning books in New York Library to keep warm, well, despite being derided at the time, that’s not actually far off what scientists predict.
Scientists have already observed that the current is wavering and this fits with the most comprehensive AMOC model to date. That that AMOC could fail as late as 2097. Or as early as 2025. But the best guess is 2057.
So, next year possibly. Do you have any holiday plans, yet?
And we should note, that model probably doesn’t factor in Hansen’s projections, so probably best to think of this as sooner rather than later.
My date range: AMOC most likely to collapse around 2057, but it could happen next year
Source: How soon might the Atlantic Ocean Break? (Wired)
That’s where the New York Times might have finished, but that’s not all.
Not by a long way. There are dozens of other tipping points out there we know about, and almost certainly some we don’t know about.
And here are two other tippings points we should probably think about
Multiple breadbasket failure
Have you bought any olive oil recently? You may have noticed that prices have over doubled in the past 2 years.
That’s because Europe has had terrible olive harvests two years in a row, as a result of climate change.
But crop failures, while not necessarily a tipping for earth systems - could be a tipping point for humanity.
There are four cereal crops that provide 70 percent of human calories: wheat, maize, soy and rice.
Production of these crops is highly concentrated in regions called breadbaskets, from where they are exported and sold on world commodity markets.
Global food markets are often on a knife edge, anyway - one wheat breadbasket region, Ukraine, is massively impacted by the Russian invasion.
Recent studies have modelled what happens if 2 or more of these breadbasket regions fail, and the result would be catastrophic, with 100s of millions or even billions of people left hungry.
A report by McKinsey, found that there is a one in 3 chance, a multiple breadbasket failure could occur in the 2050s.
My Date range: 34% chance of multiple breadbasket failure in 2050s
Source: The rising risk of a global food crisis (McKinsey)
Forest fires
As we all know, forest fires have been raging for the last decade. And surveys show they are happening more frequently, getting bigger, and burning more intensely.
Forest fires are now destroying 6 million more hectares per year than they were in 2001. And whereas then they accounted for 20 percent of tree loss, now they are responsible for 33 percent.
The more fires there are, the more carbon released as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere - which of course causes more warming; in other words a non-linear acceleration, or a textbook tipping point.
In 2021 about 1.8bn tonnes of carbon dioxide was emitted as a result of forest fires, about 5 percent of all carbon dioxide worldwide. And as fires increase, it can only get worse.
My Date range: Fires fires are already way past the tipping point
Source: The Latest Data Confirms: Forest Fires Are Getting Worse (World Resources Institute)
So, as I say, I may well be wrong about this.
But I may well not be. These are as well informed estimates as anyone else’s.
And it’s very clear: Tipping points are not just accelerating towards us, some are imminent, others are already here.
And they’ll make our task of stopping climate change, massively harder then it is already.
Global Warming in the Pipeline, Hansen and others, Oxford Open Climate Change https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889